Tropical Update: Tropical Storm/Depression Erin and Invest 92L 8/17/13

11 PM Update | Erin Weakens to a Tropical Depression… Again

Well, Erin seems like another one of those storms that is intent on hovering between classifications.  Erin is now a tropical depression for the second time and should continue to weaken through Sunday.  Monday, Erin should become a remnant low…

NHC Cone TD Erin 11PM 2013 Aug 17

5 PM Update | Erin Barely Maintaining Tropical Storm Status

Tropical Storm Erin is moving northwest at 13 mph with max winds of 40 mph.  The estimated minimum central pressure of 1006 mb. The latest forecast has Erin weakening to a tropical depression within 12 hours and fully dissipating by Tuesday.

NHC Cone TS Erin 5PM 2013 Aug 17

11 PM Update | Erin Remains a Weak Tropical Storm

Tropical Storm Erin continues to hold her found this morning, barely…  Erin has slowed and changed course, she is now moving to the northwest at 12 mph. Erin’s maximum sustained winds remain at 40 mph as does the estimated minimum central pressure of 1006 mb.

The notable change this morning is the NHC’s official track with is now more in tune with the global consensus near the end of the forecast period.  Gradual weakening is expected to occur this weekend.  The forecast now shows Tropical Storm Erin weakening to a remnant low in about 4 days and dissipating on Wednesday.

NHC Cone TS Erin 11AM 2013 Aug 17

5 AM Update | Erin Remains a Tropical Storm

Tropical Storm Erin did not change much overnight. After a slight detour, Erin is again moving to the west-northwest at 15 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and pressure is holding at 1006 mb. It is notable, that tropical storm force winds are extending outward up to 70 miles from the center of circulation. TS Erin’s forward movement will begin to slow down in over the next couple of days. Erin is expected to maintain tropical storm status today and begin to weaken on Sunday.

NHC Cone TS Erin 5AM 2013 Aug 17


The official forecast track has shifted to the north once again as models continue to show Tropical Storm Erin staying well away from land and cruise ships!

SFWMD Spaghetti Model TS Erin 5AM 2013 Aug 17

The official forecast from NHC show Erin weakening to a depression again in a few days and further to a remnant low in four days. However, the majority of the global models are suggesting that Erin will dissipate earlier than expected.

Current GOES-Floater Visible Satellite Image

GOES-Floater Visible Satellite Image

Tropical Storm/Depression Erin | System History

This table contains the NHC’s statistics for the tropical cyclone from each advisory.

Date Time (EST) Classification Max Winds (mph) Movement/Speed Pressure (mb)
Aug 14 11 PM Tropical Depression 35 WNW at 14 mph 1008
Aug 15 5 AM 35 WNW at 16 mph 1007
8 AM* Tropical Storm 40 WNW at 16 mph 1006
11 AM 40 WNW at 15 mph 1006
5 PM 40 WNW at 14 mph 1006
11 PM 40 WNW at 15 mph 1007
Aug 16 5 AM 40 WNW at 16 mph 1007
11 AM Tropical Depression 35 WNW at 17 mph 1008
5 PM 35 WNW at 17 mph 1008
11 PM Tropical Storm 40 NW at 15 mph 1006
Aug 17 5 AM 40 WNW at 14 mph 1006
11 AM 40 NW at 12 mph 1006
5 PM 40 NW at 13 mph 1006
11 PM Tropical Depression 35 WNW at 12 mph 1008

Invest 92L | Gulf of Mexico

Elsewhere, we are continuing to monitor Invest 92L in the Gulf of Mexico near the Yucatan Peninsula. The National Hurricane Center has it as a 40% (medium) chance for development during the next couple days and a 50% (medium) chance over the next five days. The low pressure system remains poorly organized with thunderstorms located to the north and northeast of the low. Conditions could become more favorable for development over the next few days.  Winds are currently estimated at 30 mph with a pressure of 1010 mb. The jet stream is dipping low into the Gulf of Mexico.  As a result it looks to keep the Invest 92L headed to the the Gulf coast of Mexico and or Texas. Additionally, the jet stream is pulling moisture away from the low which is why there are strong thunderstorms to the north and northeast of the low.

The latest intensity forecasts do suggest hat Invest 92L could be at tropical storm strength in a couple days. The spaghetti models for Invest 92L are a little more in agreement today, although still a there is some uncertainty.

SFWMD Spaghetti Model Invest 92L 9AM 2013 Aug 17


Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.