Tropical Weather Center

Current tropical weather information for the Atlantic Ocean with the latest information from the National Hurricane Center on all tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Published August 15, 2018 7:44pm EDT

ABNT20 KNHC 152344

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories Subtropical
Storm Ernesto located several hundred miles southeast of Cape Race,

A tropical wave located about 850 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Slow development of this disturbance is possible over
the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to
20 mph. By early next week, however, upper-level winds are expected
to become less conducive for any significant development to occur
when the system will be moving over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Ernesto are issued under
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Ernesto are issued under
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

Forecaster Stewart

NHC Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
NHC Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Source: National Hurricane Center

Current Tropical Systems

Summary for Subtropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)

Published August 15, 2018 11:53pm EDT


As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 15 the center of Ernesto was located near 39.7, -45.1 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

SUBTROPICAL STORM Ernesto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image SUBTROPICAL STORM Ernesto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
SUBTROPICAL STORM Ernesto Models Plotted by SFWMD
Hurricane Models Plotted by SFWMD
Source: National Hurricane Center Spaghetti Models: SFWMD

Spaghetti Models for Invests 90-99L

Invest 98L

Invest 98L Plotted by SFWMD

Invest 99L

Invest 99L Plotted by SFWMD

Graphical Analysis

Atlantic Surface Analysis

NOAA Tropical Atlantic Ocean Surface Analysis

Satellite Loop

Satellite Loop WSI

Tomorrow's Atlantic Surface Analysis

Atlantic Surface Analysis WSI

North Western Atlantic Wave Heights

NW Atlantic Hurricane Wave Heights (Latest Run)

Caribbean Wave Heights (

Sea Surface Temperatures

Sea Surface Temperatures

SSMI/SSMIS-derived Total Precipitable Water - North Atlantic

SSMI/SSMIS-derived Total Precipitable Water - North Atlantic

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DISCLAIMER Weather data is provided by a third party. This data is provided for your general information only, and should not be treated as an official forecast. Please consult your local and national weather reports for you weather making decisions.