Normally, we do not dedicate much time to the Pacific hurricane season (which started today), but today a tropical depression developed to the southwest of the latest reported position of the Disney Wonder. The Wonder is currently at Sea on day 10 of her 14 Night Westbound Panama Canal cruise.
May 15, 2013 – 8 AM PDT
At 8 AM Tropical Depression One-E was located about 650 miles south southwest of Acapulco, Mexico moving west at 12 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. The forecast shows a gradual slowdown in the forward movement.
The graphic below shows the latest graphical 5-day forecast cone for tropical depression One-E from the National Hurricane Center overlaid with an generic itinerary map for the Wonder. Based on this the Wonder looks to stay ahead of the system pending any further intensification.
Forecast models indicate a 50% chance of this system intensifying into a hurricane on Friday.
May 15, 2013 – 5 PM PDT
The system has intensified this afternoon and is now Tropical Storm Alvin with 40 mph maximum sustained winds moving west northwest at 13 mph. The probability of Alvin becoming a hurricane on Friday has increased to 60+%.
May 15, 2013 – 8 PM PDT
Tropical Storm Alvin’s winds have increased to 45 mph and continues to move west northwest at 12 mph (a slight decrease in forward movement). The probability of Alvin becoming a hurricane on Friday has increased to 80%.
May 15, 2013 – 5 AM EST
Tropical Storm Alvin intensified overnight and is well on his way to becoming a hurricane sometime on Friday. TS Alvin’s forward movement continues to slow from 12 mph to 10 mph on a west northwest heading with maximum sustained winds reaching 50 mph. The system is producing tropical storm force winds (35mph) outwards of 45 miles. Alvin continues to stay well away from land, with models mostly in agreement. The forecast shows the system weakening over the weekend into a Tropical Depression on Monday.
May 15, 2013 – 2 AM PDT
Tropical depression Alvin has dissipated sooner than original forecast suggested.