Today, June 1st, marks the official start of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season which will continue through November. On May 22nd, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) published their outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA predicts that the 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be above-normal just as they did last year.

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, predicts an 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season.

For the 2025 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6 to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.

The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including continued ENSO-neutral conditions. The most recent ENSO forecast from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center indicates, ENSO-neutral conditions are likely through the hurricane season. During the peak months August, September, and October (ASO on the linked chart), the odds are highest at 54% for ENSO-neutral, with moderate probabilities at 33% for La Niña, and low 13% chance of an El Niño event occurring.

During a high-activity era, ENSO-neutral is typically associated with above-average levels of hurricane activity. La Niña events tend to reinforce those high-activity era conditions and further increase the likelihood of an above-normal hurricane season, while most of the inactive seasons are associated with El Niño events.

The high activity era continues in the Atlantic Basin, featuring high-heat content in the ocean and reduced trade winds. The higher-heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption. 

At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development. This hurricane season also features the potential for a northward shift of the West African monsoon, producing tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms.

Colorado State University’s (CSU) Department of Atmospheric Sciences which published their report in April, is similar to NOAA’s outlook as they to anticipate the 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season to be “above-normal.” The university’s report for 2025 estimates about 9 hurricanes, 17 named storms, and 4 major hurricanes. CSU’s report expects an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.

According to the CSU forecast, the current La Niña are likely to transition to ENSO neutral conditions in the next couple of months; however, there remains considerable uncertainty as to what the phase of ENSO will be this summer and fall Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are generally warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time.

A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral (or potential La Niña) conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.

The Atlantic basin saw 18 named storms in 2024, eleven of which were hurricanes and five intensified to major hurricanes. An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. 

Below is a comparison of the 2025 NOAA and Colorado State University’s predictions along with the 1981-2010 long term average, 1991-2020 long term average, and final numbers for 2012-2024.

As you can see, the 2025 NOAA-High remains behind the record setting 2020 season which had 30 named storms develop in the Atlantic Basin. CSU predictions fall inbetween NOAA’s high and low estimates.

2025 Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Names and Pronunciations

NHC’s tropical cyclone advisory archive for the following potential named storms can be viewed here. The name pronunciation is in parentheses. A full list of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone name pronunciations through 2030 can be found here.

• Andrea (AN-dree uh)
• Barry (BAIR-ree)
• Chantal (shahn-TAHL)
• Dexter (DEHK-ster)
• Erin (AIR-rin)
• Fernand (fair-NAHN)
• Gabrielle (ga-bree-ELL)
• Humberto (oom-BAIR-toh)
• Imelda (ee-MEHL-dah)
• Jerry (JEHR-ee)
• Karen (KAIR-ren)
• Lorenzo (loh-REN-zoh)
• Melissa (meh-LIH-suh)
• Nestor (NES-tor)
• Olga (OAL-guh)
• Pablo (PAHB-lo)
• Rebekah (reh-BEH-kuh)
• Sebastien (se-BAS-tee-en)
• Tanya (TAHN-yuh)
• Van (van)
• Wendy (WEN-dee)
• Followed by the greek alphabet, if needed.

For this year, NOAA will implement improvements to its forecast communications, decision support and storm recovery efforts this season. These include:

• NHC will offer Spanish language text products to include the Tropical Weather Outlook, Public Advisories, the Tropical Cyclone Discussion, the Tropical Cyclone Update and Key Messages. 
• NHC will again issue an experimental version of the forecast cone graphic that includes a depiction of inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental U.S. New for this year, the graphic will highlight areas where a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are simultaneously in effect. 
• NHC will provide a rip current risk map when at least one active tropical system is present. The map uses data provided by local National Weather Service forecast offices. Swells from distant hurricanes cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions along the coastline.

“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.” 

“As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. “NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property.” 

It is important to keep in mind that these annual forecasts are just predictions, not what will happen. Mother Nature can, and will do whatever she wants and even the best forecast models will be thrown for a loop. It is imperative to stay alert in the event a system develops and for those living in coastal areas to be prepared. NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. The majority of coverage focuses on the landfalls, but these systems can also impact the cruise industry causing ships to alter itineraries, and change course to avoid the forecast track and associated rough seas.

We will continue to track tropical systems that have the potential to impact cruise itineraries, as well as frequent Caribbean and Bahamian ports of call. We strive to provide accurate and updated information, but ultimately the best source of up to date information on these systems the National Hurricane Center and your local National Weather Service offices. Basically, what I am saying is that we should not be used as official forecast information. The goal is to share the information from the NHC and how it relates or impacts it may have on sailings and ports of call.

We have been covering hurricane season since the website launched and have a dedicated Tropical Weather page.

Historical Hurricane Season Outlooks

• 2013 – NOAA Predicts an Above Average 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season
• 2014 – NOAA Predicts Near to Below Normal 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season
• 2015 – NOAA Predicts Below Normal 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season
• 2016 – NOAA Predicts Near-Normal 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
• 2017 – NOAA Predicts Above-Normal 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season
• 2018 – NOAA Predicts Near or Above-Normal 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
• 2019 – NOAA Predicts Near-Normal 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season
• 2020 – NOAA Predicts an Above-Normal 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season
• 2021 – NOAA Predicts an Above-Normal 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season
• 2022 – NOAA Predicts an Above-Normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
• 2023 – NOAA Predicts an Near-Normal 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season
• 2024 – NOAA Predicts an Above-Normal 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
• 2025 – NOAA Predicts an Above-Normal 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season