Tropical Depression 16 Forms in the Bahamas with Another Looming in the Eastern Caribbean

There are two areas of interest in the Tropics today that merit some attention.

NHC Tropical Outlook 10/11/12 11AM

Tropical Depression 16

The first area is Tropical Depression 16 (formerly Invest 97L) which formed to the east-northeast of the Central Bahamas.  TD16 is moving south at 1 mph towards the south with 35 mph winds.  The projected track has the system moving towards Cuba, but there are some track away from land into the Atlantic.

Spaghetti Model Tropical Depression 16 storm_97 10/11/12 11AM

The projected track is not really that important as TD16 will more than likely dissipate over the next 24 to 36 hours with no further intensification. With the forecast keeping the center of system to the northeast of the Central Bahamas through dissipation, a tropical storm watch is not expected for the islands at this time.

Invest 98L

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located about 350 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands.

Invest_98L Satellite 10/11/12 11AM

Conditions appear conductive for gradual development over the next couple of days.   The system is moving west-northwest at 10-15 mph.  Early forecast models show a potential track through the Eastern Caribbean then taking a turn into the open waters of the Atlantic.

Spaghetti Model storm_98L 10/11/12 11AM

Strong gusty winds and heavy rain fall are likely across portions of the Lesser Antillies over the next few days.

With TD16 expected to dissipate rather quickly,  neither of these systems look to be a threat to any upcoming cruises, as the Magic and Fantasy will both be in the Western Caribbean next week.

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